Category: Prediction

How Do You Prepare For A Crisis?

The sad reality is that each of us will face a crisis — or even more than one — over our lifetime. What, if anything, have you done to prepare?

Climate change threatens all of us. Rising sea water, stronger storms, weather disruption, even species extinction are all possible consequences of runway global warming. What might you do to be ready for this future?

But maybe you don’t think this is a serious threat, or you have confidence that we will address this problem before it becomes too serious.

The western coast of the United States is due for a major earthquake. Tectonic plates have been shifting, building up energy, the release of which could flood entire cities, impacting millions of people. What can individuals do to prepare for this eventuality?

But maybe you don’t live there, or know anybody who does.

Artificial Intelligence could very well reshape our entire society over the next decade or two. The worst case scenario would see mass layoffs and a collapse of the job market. And that doesn’t include the possibility of A.I. becoming self-aware, and the dangers that might pose. Are there steps that could be taken with this in mind?

Even if you discount any one of these possibilities, it seems like one or more of them could very well happen. Another financial Great Depression, a global pandemic, a meteor strike from the heavens, the rise of dictators across the globe threatening another world war, any of these could happen. Or something we haven’t thought of could catch us by surprise.

But we shouldn’t simply react. We can anticipate bad things, and prepare ourselves for them. So: How do you prepare for a crisis?

Related questions: What is the greatest problem facing humanity? How do we prepare for the next pandemic? Should we try to predict the future? How can we turn sadness into constructive action?

 

How Do You See The Future?

It can be difficult to see months into the future, let alone years or decades. How do you see what lies ahead?

Reality serves us a constant reminder that we don’t know what is going to happen. At the start of the football season, we don’t know who is going to win the Super Bowl. We can’t predict the weather more than a week in advance. People who invest in the stock market can only hope a particular stock will go up in price.

And yet, despite all the evidence that shows we cannot accurately predict the future, some people seem awfully sure about what will happen next. News pundits, op-ed columnists, and politicians all seem certain they know exactly what will happen. Not to mention psychics and tarot card readers.

With that in mind, how do you think about what tomorrow will bring?

Perhaps you view the future with optimism. Tomorrow, you might expect, will be better than today. But, of course, there is no guarantee that this is true.

Or you might think that instead, we can expect the future to be very much like the present (or the past). After all, the sun rose yesterday, it rose this morning, and it will rise tomorrow. But we know that sometimes there are changes, including big ones. The COVID-19 pandemic caught nearly everyone by surprise, and that was an obvious case where the future (say, April 2020) didn’t resemble the past (February 2020).

When you think about the future, how do you make predictions, and how do you react to those predictions? What does that mean for your present?

Related questions: Should we try to predict the future? How much does your past determine your future? Will the future be better than the present? How do you plan for the future?

What Are The Advantages Of Saying ‘I Don’t Know’?

Many people don’t like to admit that they don’t know something. However, there are advantages to saying the words ‘I don’t know’. What are they?

Knowing things is very useful. In fact, much of our society has been built around people knowing things. Engineers build bridges because they understand how materials behave. We have remarkably accurate warnings regarding extreme weather events because meteorologists understand how weather patterns evolve. And so on.

If knowing things is powerful, then the obvious corollary is that not knowing things displays weakness. Or so it might seem.

Indeed, we often behave as though that were the case. People often go through life projecting an air of certainty that, at times, might make it difficult to disagree or argue with them.

Naturally, this is a problem if they don’t actually know what they claim to know. That can be potentially embarrassing for them, or problematic or even dangerous for those around them.

So there is a time and a place for revealing your ignorance. After all, you only are ignorant until you learn, and learning often starts with the phrase ‘I don’t know’.

There are some things that are essentially unknowable. We can predict the future, but those predictions are just as likely to be wrong as they are to be right. Events happen all the time that catch experts off guard. Some examples include stock market crashes, sports upsets, medical diagnoses, and surprising political elections.

If you know something, it is important to state clearly that you are in possession of the facts. However, it can be just as important that when you don’t know, you say so just as clearly.

Can you think of benefits of saying ‘I don’t know’?

Related questions: When was the last time you said ‘I don’t know’? Know or don’t know? How do you deal with uncertainty?

What Technology Is A Force For Good?

Much of the conversation surrounding emerging or existing technologies often focuses on worst-case uses. But what are some of the ways technology can be used for improving the future?

There have been many warnings surrounding Artificial Intelligence, or A.I. From job replacement, to increased potential for spreading misinformation, to accusations of plagiarism or even intellectual laziness, the dangers are many. Warning bells have come from a variety of different sources, and some predictions are quite bleak, indeed.

Existing technologies can also have negative consequences.

The Internet has only been in use for a few decades, but some blame it for the increased polarization throughout the world. Misinformation and propaganda seem to spread more quickly than facts and logic. Social media platforms keep us in our own echo chambers. It is easier to find and target people for scams, and conspiracy theories abound. It is a far cry from the educational potential the Internet initially had.

In fact, you can go all the way back to the start of the industrial revolution to see the seeds of our current climate crisis. The burning of fossil fuels made production and distribution cheap and easy, but a warming planet is an unintended side effect.

These are all examples of technology introducing or exacerbating problems. However, there is no doubt that our world has used our growing mechanical know-how for good occasionally. Can you think of some examples of positive outcomes that come from science and engineering advances? And in what ways might the emerging technologies transform our world for the better?

Related questions: What role does technology play in your life? Is technology neutral? What skills have you lost due to technology? Why does social media often bring out the worst in us?

Do You Have A Prediction For The New Year?

Our world is a complicated place, with lots happening at any time. Do you have a prediction for what might take place in the next year?

Share why if you wish.